دراسة تحليلية لمؤشرات الأمن الغذائي لأهم محاصيل الحبوب في مصر

Abstract EN

The issue of food security is one of the most important issues that have emerged recently and has become one of the five main problems facing the developing world (food, water, unemployment, external debt, pollution).

Where the agricultural sector plays an important and vital role in the Egyptian national economy, as it is the sector responsible for achieving food security in Egypt, and about 25.6% of the total employed work in this sector.

And contributes about 11.2 of the gross domestic product with a real growth rate of about 3.1% in 2017, and the Egyptian rural sector represents about 57.8% compared to 42.2% living in urban areas in 2017, and income estimates are one of the important indicators that help the state in planning and developing agricultural and economic policies to develop this sector Reflecting on the increase in national output, the research aims to determine the food security conditions of the most important cereal crops in Egypt, as well as the development of production, consumer and price capacity, the degree of economic stability of the prices of production inputs in Egypt.And knowing the strategic stock and food security laboratories of the most important cereal crops in Egypt, the research relied on two methods of descriptive and quantitative statistical analysis, relying on the published and unpublished secondary data from the various authorities related to the subject of the research and food security coefficient can be estimated using various economic equations.

The most important research findings were as follows: A- By studying the productive and economic indicators of wheat, maize, and rice crops, which were represented in both the cultivated area, acre productivity, total production, total costs, total revenue, net return, human^ labor, animal service, and automated service during the period (2000-2017), showing that: 1- The annual change in the cultivated area of wheat, maize, and rice crops amounted to 60.75 21.22, -6.43 thousand feddans, respectively, and the annual change rate was estimated at 2.06%, 1.13%, and 0.44%, respectively.

For crops of wheat, corn, rice.

2- The annual change in the acre productivity of wheat, maize, and rice crops amounted to 0.001 ardb, - 0.025 ardeb, - 0.020 tons, respectively, and the annual change rate was estimated at 0.036%, -0.660%, and 0.480%, respectively.

Rates of annual change of wheat and rice crops for low yield of maize.

3- The annual change in the total production of wheat, maize, and rice crops amounted to 176.36 thousand tons, 34.14 thousand tons, -59.42 thousand tons, respectively, and the annual change rate was estimated at 2.20%, 0.490% -1.02 respectively, and it is evident from the high rates of Annual change of wheat, maize and fall crops for rice.

4- The annual change in the total costs of wheat, maize, and rice crops amounted to 269.71, 373.77 and 363.79 pounds / acre respectively, and the annual change rate was estimated at 19.77%, 10.50%, and 9.19 respectively, as evidenced by the high rates of annual change of crops Wheat, corn, rice.

5- The annual change in the total revenue of wheat, maize, and rice crops amounted to 548.48, 436.88, 322.32 pounds / acre, respectively, and the annual change rate was estimated at 8.77%, 8.20%, and 5.50 respectively, as evidenced by the high rates of annual change of corn wheat crops.

Shami rice.

6- The annual change in the cost of human labor for wheat, maize, and rice crops amounted to 64.78, 107.92,100.17 pounds / acre, respectively, and the annual change rate was estimated at 8.68%, 11.40% and 11.40%, respectively.

Corn, wheat.

7- The annual change in the cost of the animal service for wheat, maize, and rice crops amounted to 0.560 1.15, -0.570 pounds / acre respectively, and the annual change rate was estimated at 10.18%, 17.10%, -1.67 respectively, and it is evident from the high rates of change Annual crop of wheat, maize and low rice yields.

8- The annual change in service feed in wheat, maize, and rice amounted to 33.27 36.94 46.45 pounds / acre to continue.

The annual change was estimated at 6.44%, 8.60%, 7.59, rice, wheat.

B- By studying the consumer indicators of wheat, maize, and rice crops, which were represented in both the amount of exports, the amount of imports, consumer energy, the average per capita, the food gap, the self-sufficiency ratio during the period (2000 - 2017), it was found that: 1- The annual change in the quantity of exports of wheat, maize, and rice crops amounted to 13.45, 0.588 -87.89 thousand tons, respectively, and the annual change rate was estimated at 16.30%, 8.96%, -13.30 respectively, and the high annual change rates for wheat crops are evident.

Maize, low for rice.

2- The annual change in the amount of imports of wheat, maize and rice crops amounted to 392.96 149.30 2.63 thousand tons, respectively, and the annual change rate was estimated at 5.80%, 2.90% and 7.71%, respectively.

This is evidenced by the high rates of annual change in the crops of rice, wheat , Maize.

3- The annual change in the consumption capacity of wheat, maize, and rice crops amounted to 239.03 530.90, 239.90 and 140.38 thousand tons, respectively, and the annual change rate was estimated at 3.61%, 1.66%, and 3.12, respectively, as evidenced by the high rates of annual change of wheat crops.

Rice, Maize.

4- The annual change in per capita consumption of wheat, maize, and rice crops amounted to 2.73 0.375 and 0.620 kg / year, respectively, and the annual change rate was estimated at 1.44%, 0.20%, and 1.06 respectively, as evidenced by the high rates of annual change For rice crops, wheat, maize.

5- The annual change in the nutritional gap of wheat and maize crops was about 353.66 and 205.80 thousand tons, respectively, and the annual change rate was estimated at 5.48% and 3.19%, respectively.

This is evidenced by the high annual change rates for the wheat and maize crops.

6- The annual change in the percentage of self-sufficiency ratio for wheat, maize, and rice crops was about 0.786%, 0.797%, and 5.80%, respectively, and the annual change rate was estimated at 1.42%, 1.60%, and 4.21%, respectively.

For crops of rice, maize, wheat.

C- By studying the price indicators of wheat, maize, and rice crops, which were represented in both the seed price, the price of municipal fertilizer, the price of chemical fertilizer, the price of pesticides, which show that: 1- The annual change in the seed price for wheat, maize, and rice crops amounted to 16.97, 14.73 and 15.56 EGP / ton, respectively, and the annual change rate was estimated at 9.40%, 8.50%, and 8.22 respectively, and it is evident from this the high annual change rates for wheat crops , Corn, rice.

2- The annual change in the price of the municipal fertilizer for wheat, maize, and rice crops amounted to 7.45 12.60 and 5.83 pounds / ton, respectively, and the annual change rate was estimated at 9.31%, 8.80%, and 14.17 respectively, and it is evident from the high rates of annual change For rice, wheat and maize crops.

3- The annual change in the price of chemical fertilizer for wheat, maize, and rice crops amounted to 32.09 34.19 and 32.09 pounds / ton, respectively, and the annual change rate was estimated at 9.33%, 8.34% and 3.91 respectively, and it is clear from this the high annual change rates for rice crops.

Wheat, maize.

4- The annual change in the price of pesticides for wheat, maize, and rice crops amounted to 8.84, 5.93, 7.74 pounds / ton, respectively, and the annual change rate was estimated at 10.32%, 9.60%, and 7.15 respectively, as evidenced by the high annual change rates for wheat, maize crops.

Shami rice.

٢ D- The general index of the degree of stability of the prices of production requirements for the most important cereal crops in Egypt, which was represented in both seeds, municipal fertilizers, chemical fertilizers, pesticides for wheat crops, maize, and rice, where the general index of the degree of stability of seed prices reached about 43.54%, which indicates That the seed prices are characterized by instability, while the general index of the degree of instability of municipal fertilizers, chemicals, pesticides reached 34.47%, 9.70%, and 31.16%, respectively, of the aforementioned crops, which indicates that the prices are stable.

E- The average period of domestic production coverage for consumption of wheat, maize, and rice crops was about 202.0 209.4, 502.1 days (6.7, 7.0, 16.7 months), and this is not a good indicator for the Egyptian economy, which indicates a decrease in food security of wheat, maize crops the rice.

f- The average period of import coverage for domestic consumption of wheat, maize and rice crops was about 164.1, 150.6, 2.82 days (5.5, 5.0 months), and it is known that the increase in the period of import coverage for domestic consumption and the decrease in the period of adequacy of production is not a good indicator for the Egyptian economy.

G- The size of the surplus of wheat, maize, and rice crops for domestic consumption amounted to 5.13, 196, 26.97 thousand tons, enough for consumption approximately 102.4, 6.49, and 26.72 days, respectively, for the aforementioned crops, while the total deficit was estimated at about 2.90, 2.50 9.80 thousand tons, with a deficit period estimated at 0.09 0.07, 0.46 days, respectively, for the aforementioned crops.

Q- By estimating the food security coefficient of wheat, maize and rice crops at about - 0.002, - 0.014 and 0.21, this indicates that the value of the food security coefficient decreases from zero, which reflects the food insecurity of wheat, maize and rice crops.

U- The ratio of the calorie balance of rice as an export crop versus wheat as an import crop and rice as an export crop versus maize as an import crop were about 2.39 and 1.49 respectively, which was greater than the correct one, indicating that there is a wider scope for achieving gains from the calorie balance between each of two commodities Respectively, as this means that in light of the calories obtained from the ton for the three crops mentioned above, the rice export prices remained against the import of wheat and maize, which means obtaining more calories with less costs.