دراسة اقتصادية للتجارة المصرية مع أهم الشركاء التجاريين : بين الوضع الفعلي و المأمول

Abstract EN

Export is considered as a main pillar in providing stable monetary sources of foreign revenues.

Imports are also considered one of the main pillars that countries usually resort to to provide commodities in general and strategic commodities in particular, whose domestic production is not enough.

The research problem arises in the following question: are the trade between Egypt and the most important trading partners reach the desired levels or still below the level? The research aims to measure this comparison in two directions: the first is the Egyptian exports and imports with the most important trading partners at the level of the countries for the whole period of the study, while the second is the Egyptian exports and imports with the most important trading partners over the years, and the comparison is done in both Between reality and potential.

The gravity model was used.

The research was based on the data of the main trading partners with Egypt (20 countries in the case of exports, 33 countries in the case of imports), and the method of estimating the mixed data was used Pooled Estimation with the use of the random effects model.

The most important results were as follows: - The total value of Egyptian exports to the world reached about 25.753 billion dollars, of which the value of Egyptian exports to the main trading partners (20 countries) represents about 67.1% on average for the period (2007-2018).

- The total value of Egyptian imports to the world reached about 60.632 billion dollars, of which the value of Egyptian imports from the most important trading partners (33 countries) is about 86.8% on average for the period period (2007- 2018).

- The average coverage of Egyptian exports to Egyptian imports was about 44.2% on average for the period (2007-2018).

- Egyptian exports achieved in the first period a reality situation bigger than the potential situation with an average difference of about 26.1 million dollars, noting that a reality situation is less than potential in 2010.

- Egyptian exports in the second period achieved a more reality situation bigger than the potential situation, with an average difference of about 102.6 million dollars.

- Nine countries achieved a lower status for the reality Egyptian exports than potential.

Saudi Arabia came first with a difference of about 1022.1 million dollars, followed by Germany with a difference of about 909.2 million dollars, and China by a difference of about 611.8 million dollars for the first period.

While 12 countries achieved a lower status for the reality Egyptian exports than potential, Saudi Arabia came first with a difference of about 493.0 million dollars, followed by Germany by a difference of about 439.4 million dollars, and France by a difference of about 223.3 million dollars for the second period, this indicates the possibility of increasing Egyptian exports by focusing mainly on these countries.

- Egyptian imports achieved in the first period a reality situation bigger than the potential situation with an average difference of about 158.5 million dollars, noting that a reality situation is less than potential in 2010.

- Egyptian imports in the second period achieved a more reality situation bigger than the potential situation, with an average difference of about 164.8 million dollars - 16 countries achieved an upper status for the reality Egyptian imports than potential.

United States came first with a difference of about 1765.5 million dollars, followed by Germany with a difference of about 1475.3 million dollars, and Ukraine by a difference of about 1322.2 million dollars for the first period.

While 17 countries achieved an upper status for the reality Egyptian imports than potential, Germany came first with a difference of about 2123.7 million dollars, followed by China by a difference of about 2025.1 million dollars, and Ukraine by a difference of about 1501.4 million dollars for the second period, this indicates the possibility of decreasing Egyptian imports by focusing mainly on these countries.

The research recommends: to focus mainly on countries with the highest potential situation countries to increase Egyptian exports, and countries with the lowest potential situation reducing Egyptian imports.