دراسة تحليلية لاستجابة أهم محاصيل الحبوب لأسعار المحاصيل المنافسة بالأراضي القديمة و الجديدة في مصر

Abstract EN

Given the economic transformations, which faced the Egyptian economy after the sharp rise in world grain prices as a result because most of the major grainproducing States, the largest exporter in the world market, especially wheat and maize, the tendency to convert part of their production to produce bio-fuel was natural to be affected by the Egyptian agricultural sector and, hence, become certain that Egypt can not be isolated from these economic developments, as they will have an impact on the agricultural sector directly and through impacts on agricultural production decisions, which is represented in response to display the most important cereal crops wheat, maize and rice So, the problem of the study and their objective in the attempt to estimate the response functions display the most important cereal crops old and new lands in Egypt to determine the most important variables that can affect the response area of grain crops in the old, new, and covered the engine description Mark Nerlov dynamic model has relied on study, also found that the annual growth rate for each of the wheat crop in land of old and new crop corn lands old and new rice crop land was around the old 24.21, 12.72, 15.55, 1.37, 24.51 thousand acres during the study period (2000-2017).

And for assessing response functions View the wheat crop in the old lands of Egypt and by using a form of modified partial Nerlov during the period (1990 - 2008) determine the response of wheat farmers of the ratio between the price of wheat, alfalfa, wheat, sugar beet, and for the response of the wheat farmers of New Territories in response to show the relative price of wheat and beans municipal council, the relative price of wheat and barley, and the relative price of wheat, tomatoes, winter, and for the response of the maize crop growers old lands determine the response of maize to the farm price relative to corn and rice, farm price of corn and green fodder, and determine the response of maize growers in New Territories of the price ratio between corn and green fodder, and the price ratio between corn and peanuts, as the response to rice farmers in land .

The old price ratio between rice and each of the Mistiray price of maize crops, potatoes and sesame.

It was obvious from the results of the study, price incentives are the most important variables upon which the farm deep expansion in the cultivation of cereal crops, taking into account the relative prices between the cultivation of the crop to another.

In the light of the results of the study and the freedom of the farms in the choice of crops grown by the most important recommendations is.

1- the use of state policy encouraging price to farmers with the announcement of the prices of some crops from the cultivated to encourage farmers to expand acreage of grain crops and recommended by the installation, where crop prices is the wave of the use of economic resources.

2- Survey and know the tendencies of farmers and their problems surrounding the methods of production and how to solve to maintain relative prices at a level to achieve the objectives of farmers with the objectives of the state to achieve selfsufficiency in grain.

3- the interdependence between the cultivation of cereal crops old and new lands so that integration occurs in the area as a productive working to increase the rate of grain self-sufficiency