دراسة اقتصادية لتأثير سد النهضة الأثيوبي و أثره على القطاع الزراعي المصري

Abstract EN

The crop pattern was about 12 million feddans on average for average of three years 2014-2016.

The effect of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has been studied through statistical analysis as well as through the programming of objectives.

The impact of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Egyptian agricultural sector was studied according to the scenarios expected.

Three scenarios are more likely than others.

A model of programming objectives for the results of each scenario has been made according to the maximization of feddan yields and the minimization of water needs and in accordance with what each scenario provides for Egypt.

By applying the programming model of objectives to reduce the water needs and maximize the feddan yield and the return of water unit according to the first scenario, which is to fill the dam of the Renaissance River in ten years, which needs 74 billion cubic meters of water from the Nile.

Thus, 7.5 billion cubic meters will be deducted from Egypt's share, after calculating the rate of evaporation and sedimentation rate in the soil to about 10 billion cubic meters.

The results of the first scenario showed that the crop area is expected to decrease to about 9.13 million feddans with a loss in the crop area of about 3 million feddans annually for Egypt at a rate of 25% loss of the crop composition.

This scenario achieves 59.9 billion pounds with a loss of 15 billion pounds and a volume of water needs of 30.93 m3.

This scenario is considered the least losses scenario.

It was also found that the total losses amounted to 25% of the net agricultural income of Egypt during the period from 2022-2028.

The net agricultural income is expected to decline from 360 billion pounds to 270 billion pounds with losses estimated at 90 billion pounds and an estimated 5.3 billion dollars for 10 years, according to the exchange rate of 17 pounds to the dollar.

And by applying the model of programming objectives for the reduction of water needs and maximizing the return and minimization of available water use according to The second scenario is the filling of the Renaissance Dam Lake in six years which requires 74 billion cubic meters of Nile water.

Thus, 12 billion cubic meters will be deducted from Egypt's share, after calculating the rate of evaporation and sedimentation rate in the soil to about 17 billion cubic meters.

The results of the first scenario showed that the crop area decreased to about 4.85 million feddans with a loss in the crop area of 7.3 million feddans annually to Egypt at a rate of 60% of the crop pattern.This scenario achieves 30.2 billion pounds with a loss of 44.7 billion pounds and a volume of water needs of 16.85 billion cubic meters.

This is the average loss scenario.

The second scenario of the impact of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Egypt is expected to be estimated at 60% of the net Egyptian agricultural production, representing a loss of 216 billion Egyptian pounds, equivalent to about 12.7 billion dollars at the exchange rate of 17 pounds to the dollar.

These losses are $ 12.7 billion for a six-year period that Egypt is hard to afford.

And by applying the model of programming objectives for the reduction of water needs and maximizing the return per acre and minimization of available water according to The third scenario is the filling of the Renaissance dam in three years, which requires 74 billion cubic meters of Nile water.

Thus, 24.7 billion m 3 will be deducted from Egypt's share, which will increase after calculating the rate of evaporation and sedimentation rate in the soil to about 33 billion m 3.

The results of the third scenario showed a decrease in crop area to about 2.96 million feddans, with a loss in the area of 9.2 million feddans per year for Egypt at a rate of 75% of the crop pattern.This scenario achieves 19.4 billion pounds with a loss of 55.5 billion pounds and a volume of water needs of 10.93 billion cubic meters.

This scenario is the biggest annual loss for Egypt.

According to Scenario 3, the expected impact of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was estimated at 76% of Egypt's net agricultural output, representing a loss of 270 billion Egyptian pounds, equivalent to about 16 billion dollars at the exchange rate of 17 pounds to the dollar.

These losses are $ 16 billion for three years, which is impossible for Egypt to bear.

The most important recommendations of the research is the need to develop a proposed action plan to reduce these negative effects if they occur: The decision-maker recommends negotiating only about the possibility of the first scenario because it is the least casualty scenario for Egypt.

With Egypt's rights established by international law, Ethiopia must compensate Egypt for these losses in the agricultural and related sectors.

It is estimated at 25% in the first scenario.

The net agricultural income is expected to decline from 360 billion pounds to 270 billion pounds with losses estimated at 90 billion pounds and an estimated 5.3 billion dollars according to the exchange rate of 17 pounds to the dollar.

It is recommended that the second and third scenarios be considered to be completely detached because of their impact on net agricultural income, the state budget, food security and social and political stability.

According to the second scenario, losses are estimated at 60% of the net Egyptian agricultural output, which represents losses by 216 billion Egyptian pounds, equivalent to about 12.7 billion dollars at the exchange rate of 17 pounds to the dollar.

These losses are $ 12.7 billion that Egypt is hard to afford.

According to the third scenario, losses are estimated at 76% of the net Egyptian agricultural output, which represents losses of 270 billion Egyptian pounds, equivalent to about 16 billion dollars at the exchange rate of 17 pounds to the dollar.

The losses, worth 16 billion dollars, are impossible for Egypt to bear for three years.

Therefore, the first scenario is the desired scenario for the negotiation process with Ethiopia.

Egypt's losses could be compensated by $ 5.3 billion under the first scenario.

Ethiopia could bear the magnitude of the loss of electricity export revenue it has agreed with neighboring countries to produce the expected Renaissance dam from electricity.

Egypt should start immediately in the legal field as this area needs years to prove Egypt's right in international forums.

By clarifying the size of the losses incurred on Egypt internationally and their legal confirmation, then the executive steps start to prove Egypt's right.

Ethiopia can hear us then and stop evading Egypt's rights.