الصلات الرئيسة بين سياسات الاقتصاد الكلي و النمو الاقتصادي و الزراعي المصري خلال الفترة (1990-2017)‎

Abstract EN

The issue of the connections between macroeconomic policies and the Egyptian economic and agricultural growth is important in economic literature.

The paper aims at investigate the major connections between economy-wide policies and the Egyptian economic and agricultural growth.

The research question is as follows: What are the relationships between the macroeconomic indicators such as: Inflation rate, unemployment rate, and exchange rate with Egyptian economic and agricultural growth during the period 1990-2017.

The literature review provides with the theoretical analytical framework of macroeconomics connections with agriculture Sector from the development perspective.

The research methods include the suitable econometric methods namely, OLS, Granger-causality test, the Vector Auoregression model (VAR), in addition to the Feasible GLS estimates techniques such as: Hildreth-Lu and the Maximum Likelihood.

The dataset from the World Bank World Development Indicators is used.

The results indicated that during the study period (1990-2017) about 62% of the variations in the annual GDP growth interpreted by statistically significant negative impact of unemployment rate in addition to a tiny statistically significant positive impact of the FDI.

while, about 28% of the variations in the annual agricultural value added due to the positive statistically significant effect of the exchange rate and the negative statistically significant effect of both unemployment rate and inflation rate.

The result also indicated to the statistically positive effect of exchange rate on inflation rate.

The Phillips curve followed the S curve behavior which increases firstly by an increasing rate and lately by a decreasing rate.

The most important policy implications of the results are the vital and central role of the inflation rate impacts on the economic and agricultural growth annual rate.

Depending on this important conclusion, there is very necessary need to decide on what the trade-offs among the objectives of the general price level stability, financial stability, decreasing unemployment.

The type of macroeconomic and agricultural policies that are characterized by market-oriented and growth -friendly of the Egyptian economy and agriculture sector is preferred to achieve prosperous future of Egypt.