بدائل زراعة الأرز في ظل المتغيرات المحلية و الإقليمية

Abstract EN

Egypt has recently Taken steps to reduce crops cultivated area which have a massive water consumption, specially after the new political and economic conditions such as agreements of Ethiopian renaissance, liberalization of exchange rate and climate changes.

One of the most important corps is rice, it's cultivated area has been reduced with about 450 : 500 thousand feddans, resulting in production deficit with 1.8 : 2 million tons.

So that, it was necessary to cultivate this area by alternatives less water consumption crops, so that it yields enough revenue to import our rice needs without adding a new burden to the trade balance by imports substitution or increasing exports.

The research use goal programming with two model to make scenarios of the best alternatives of 14 crops " 9 of them in which Egypt has an export surplus and 5 in which it suffers from a food gap", which yield the highest revenue with less water consumption under two constraints: area and labor, the first model make priority to maximize net return function, resulted 3 scenarios under area and labor constraints that each achieve net revenue representing 250% , 98% , 202% of rice net revenue and it's water consumption representing 61% , 63.4% , 62% of rice water consumption respectively, and 2 scenarios under only area constraint each achieve net revenue representing 98% , 611% of rice net revenue and water consumption representing 63.4% , 63% of rice water consumption.

The second make priority to minimize water consumption function, resulted 4 scenarios, 2 of them under area and labor constraints that each chieve net revenue representing 58% , 202.5% of rice net revenue and it's water consumption representing 50% , 62% of rice water consumption respectively, and 2 scenarios under only area constraint each chieve net revenue representing 58% .

253.2% of rice net revenue and water consumption representing 50% , 61.6% of rice water consumption respectively.

The indicators of economic efficiency of these crops productivity average during the period (2014:2016) were compared with rice, the dollars income flows from production exports of submitted surplus crops areas and saving dollars achieved by growing gap crops were measured and it's ability to cover our rice imports.

with the comparison of the two strategies importance "imports substitution, increasing exports", and which of them has priority in care, and based on the achieved results, the research offered a set of recommendations including the state support of imports substitution, setting a price police by the government to insure that the farmers achieve a satisfactory return from crops cultivation require to industry sector, specially that the cost of this policy will saving about 2.3 million dollars which is the cost average of import the gap crops during the last 3 years, applicate of the contractual farming system and the state must commitment to receive crops from farmers at the declared price as wheat, create industries that absorb these crops production specially gap crops such as oils and animal feed, prevent the import of these crops unless they are covered by local agricultural, cultivate it annually in exchanges with rice to keep soil washing from excess salts, take hard procedures for cultivated violation rice.