تحليل السياسات الإنتاجية و الإستيرادية لمحصول القمح في مصر

Abstract EN

The wheat crop in Egypt is the main determinant of the value and size of the food gap.

It is one of the main food crops of the vast majority of the population.

It produces the flour necessary for the production of bread.

which is the main food of the Egyptian citizen.

The problem of research is that the wheat crop is affected by other crops or economic activity to the extent of the success and safety of agricultural policies pursued by the state.

The research aims at measuring the impact of the agricultural production policy applied to wheat production in Egypt as one of the most important strategic crops.

The research also aims to analyze the import policy of the wheat crop by identifying the development of the quantity of production.

importation and import price of wheat.

as well as identifying the determinants of imports of wheat .

And to identify the quantitative gap in Egypt during the period studied.

The research was based on the descriptive and quantitative economic analysis of the cost of production and the yield of the wheat crop in Egypt financially and economically.

SAT (PAM) as well as to assess the objectives of the research.

which was based on time series and annual rates of growth analysis.

some statistical measures necessary.

The research was based mainly on data published and not published from various sources.

such as the Central Administration of Agricultural Economics - Ministry of Agriculture.

the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics.

and also used the databases available on the Internet of the Food and Agriculture Organization of FAO.

in addition to some research economics.

Arab and foreign references related to the subject of research.

The research reached some of the most important results: 1- The total cost of the wheat crop in Egypt showed that the total cost of the project was estimated at LE 5437.

exceeding the total estimated economic cost of the farm estimated at LE 5187.18.

2- The general average of the feddan yield for the wheat crop.

which is the financial resident.

was estimated at LE 9275.6.

and it is less than the feddan's resident yield.

which is equivalent to the same yield which reached LE 12522.06 during the period (2012-2016).

3- .The nominal protection coefficient for the inputs of the production of the wheat crop was estimated at LE 0.94 .

while the nominal protection coefficient for the yield of the wheat crop was estimated at LE 0.74 during the period (2012-2016) 4- .The effective protection coefficient for wheat crop reached LE 0.72 during the period (2012-2016).

As for the rate of effective protection of the wheat crop in Egypt amounted to about (28)%.

which is a negative value and this result is consistent with all the previous results research 5- estimated cost of local resources cost of about 0.34 pounds for wheat crop in Egypt.

which is less than the right one by a large proportion.

and this means achieving a comparative advantage in the production of wheat crop.

6- The highest import price of wheat at 3162 pounds / ton in 2016 by 228.08% of the average total price of wheat imports in Egypt of about 1386.36 pounds / ton during the period (2000 - 2016).

while the lowest import price Wheat was in 2000 at a price of LE 496.40 / tonne.

7- The most significant and specific variables for wheat imports are the population.

consumption and production of wheat in Egypt and finally the exchange rate of the pound against the dollar respectively.

and that all relations between the two countries were direct relations and this is consistent with economic logic.