استخدام الأساليب العلمية في التنبؤ بالإيرادات الضريبية من خلال بناء نموذج السلاسل الزمنية : دراسة تطبيقية على ديوان الضرائب بالسودان في الفترة 2017 م-2019 م

Abstract EN

The study dealt with using scientific methods for forecasting the tax revenues in the general budget in Sudan through building a time series model, because estimation of taxes in the general budget depends on traditional methods without taking into consideration the economic, social and political changes affecting the volume of expected taxes.

The study aimed to use scientific methods to build a time series model that will provide more realistic taxes forecast that take into consideration the different expected changes, which will affect tax estimate, and since it has been proven that the tax series in Sudan has a general trend and seasonal changes.

Therefore, the winter’s three parameters exponential smoothing model was used to represent the series data; besides ARIMA models by using the expert modeler through statistical package to compare between exponential smoothing models and ARIMA models and then choosing the best model to represent the time series under study according to the criteria of selecting the best model.

The study proved that the best model is the winter's three parameters exponential smoothing, since its achieved degree of accuracy surpassed other models, and the results of the analysis and preliminary tests that were presented by the model were positive, which indicate the quality of the estimated model in the process of future forecasting of the values of monthly tax revenues in Sudan.

According, the study recommended using this model in forecasting tax revenues in Sudan