دراسة اقتصادية للتنبؤ بمساحات أهم المحاصيل الزراعية بواحة سيوة

Abstract EN

Forecasting agricultural variables is one of the most important scientific methods that can be used in planning and designing future agricultural policies.

the study's problem is that there are no accurate estimates of the future prospects for the area and production of the main agricultural crops in the Siwa oasis.

this aggravates the problems related to food security in Egypt, which is represented by the inability of local agricultural production to meet the growing needs of the population for the main commodities and food products.

based on the research problem, the study aimed to develop a future vision for the most important agricultural activities in the oasis of Siwa, namely, the cultivation of olives and date palms in the oasis of Siwa.

the study also relied on two methods of descriptive and quantitative analysis using some quantitative statistical analysis models, such as the simple linear regression model and the Arima model.

the results of the study showed the possibility of a significant improvement in that area in the coming years, as it is expected that the area planted will reach about 32.3 thousand acres, an increase of about 12.3 thousand acres compared to the average area planted during the study period, which reached about 20.01 thousand acres, and an increase of about 61.4% over the period (2005-2021), and in light of the results can be conceivable for the planting of the olive tree in the previous period.

the Siwa oasis in the near future.