دراسة اقتصادية لأثر التوزيع الصنفي للقمح في تطبيق الإحلال محل الواردات

Abstract EN

Considering the global tensions and the great fears that threaten a global food crisis, and the Russian-Ukrainian war that affected the world market for wheat because they are two of the largest wheat producing and exporting countries, it was important to think of ways to strengthen Egyptian food security and the need to reduce the wheat import bill and increase production to avoid the impact of this crisis on the Egyptian economy.

therefore, the study problem is to study the extent of dependence on local resources to fill the wheat production deficit that improve self-sufficiency ratios and reduce the import bill by increasing production.

replacing them with low-productivity items and measuring the impact of this substitution on the state's trade balance.

the study concluded with a set of results, perhaps the most important of which is that the policy of substituting varieties according to the highest productivity, taking into account the varietal distribution, which is based on a scientific basis, taking into account the environmental and climatic conditions, is really effective in the short term in substituting imports and will save the state millions of pounds, which in order save an amount 1.43 billion pounds increase in production value of lower Egypt, 729 million pounds increase in production value of middle Egypt, and about 139 million pounds increase in production value in governorates outside the valley.

estimatedly, it can be said that the total savings from substitution because of the optimal varieties distribution is about 2.5 billion pounds annually, according to the average estimates of this study.

finally, it can be said that the import substitution policy is more effective in influencing the total production once productivity efficiency is concerned, also, the comparison between the effect of the price increase on the area and the increase in production efficiency on increasing production under the conditions of limited water resources in Egypt is certainly in favour of increasing production efficiency.