استخدام نموذج ألتمان في التنبؤ بالفشل المالي في القطاع الصناعي السعودي

Abstract EN

The study aimed to use the Altman model as one of the most important models of predicting financial failure in assessing the industrial sector in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which is one of the most important economic sectors in the Kingdom, in terms of the potential exposure of companies belonging to this sector to the risks of financial failure due to the economic crisis that hit the Saudi market.

The sample of the study consisted of all the industrial sector companies listed on the Saudi stock market and which financial listings are available during the period 2012-2018, which numbered 75 companies.

The study showed a set of results and recommendations, the most important of which is that Altman model is an important model that has the ability to predict the future status of companies and sort them into companies that may be at risk of financial failure and others are successful and companies that are difficult to predict, Where the model was able to classify 24 companies out of 75 Saudi industrial companies and equivalent to 32% of the company threatened with financial failure, while there are 39 companies equivalent to 52% of the sample study are considered successful companies and there are no risks to their continuation in the activity, while the remaining 12 companies equivalent to 16% of the sample is unresolved, which calls for in-depth studies on its financial situation to address the threats.

The study also recommended a set of recommendations, including the use of the Altman model by companies to avoid companies reaching the stage of bankruptcy and liquidation, as well as diversifying industrial companies to their investment portfolios in order to reduce the risk of failure in the event of economic problems in the industrial sector.