أسعار النفط و النمو الاقتصادي في ليبيا : تحليل ديناميكي

Abstract EN

The current study has three goals.

First, estimating the asymmetric effects of oil price on economic growth the Libyan economy.

second, testing directions of causality between these variables in the long run.

Third, analyzing the response of economic growth to oil price shocks.

The study adopted three econometric techniques, which are, NARDL model, Toda-Yamamoto TY causality test, Impulse response functions IRF and variance decomposition VD.

NARDL model results supported the existing a long run equilibrium relationship between its variables.

In addition, the study findings indicated a positive impact of negative changes in oil price on economic growth in the short run, and a positive impact of the negative and positive changes in oil price on economic growth in the long run.

According to TY causality test, a bidirectional causality relationship between these variables was captured.

Furthermore, IRF results showed that the response of economic growth to shocks in oil price is positive.

VD findings illustrated that fluctuating in each variable depends on shocks in the variable itself more than shocks in the other.