دراسة اقتصادية تحليلية للفجوة الزيتية و مستقبل إنتاج الزيوت النباتية في مصر

Abstract EN

The research showed that the prediction of self-sufficiency rates of oil crops in Egypt will rise to reach %19.9, %15.1 in the years 2023, 2025, unless the conditions surrounding the current oil crops change, and that the crop structure must be reconsidered to include oil crops in the old lands, with the need to expand its cultivation in the new lands, which can be cultivated and new varieties of which are highly productive and tolerant water salinity the research problem is represented by a deficit in the local production of edible oils to meet local needs, as the self-sufficiency rate is about 21.6% of the oils consumed locally as an average for the period (2001-2020), which leads to the import of large quantities from abroad to fill this deficit.

the study aims to predict self-sufficiency rates of oil crops in Egypt until 2025 using the ARIMA model so that an attempt can be made to reach a proposed agricultural policy towards achieving self-sufficiency in oil crops in Egypt.