استخدام نموذج NARDL في تحديد أثر بعض متغيرات الاقتصاد الكلي على قيمة العملة النقدية : دراسة حالة الجزائر خلال الفترة 1990-2020

Abstract EN

This study aims to highlight the effect of both the negative and positive shocks on the inflation rate as the main variable, in addition to the change in the growth of gross domestic product and the terms of trade as secondary variables on the value of the Algerian dinar.

This is using the NARDL model for the period 1990-2020.

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This study concludes that there is a negative effect of positive shocks on the inflation rate in the long and short terms, as an increase in the inflation rate leads to a decrease in the value of the Algerian dinar, and this effect was less severe in the short term.

In addition, there is a positive effect of the terms of trade, as an increase in commercial transactions leads to an increase in the value of the Algerian dinar, leading to an increase in purchasing power, and this effect was stronger in the long term.

However, this study did not record any statistical significance for the negative shocks of inflation and the growth of gross domestic product.