هل يؤثر سعر النفط على معدل التضخم في الجزائر ؟ : نظرة جديدة على أساس اختبار NARDL و MAKI للتكامل المشترك

Abstract EN

This paper employs the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, the asymmetric nonlinear ARDL model, and the MAKI cointegration test to examine the symmetric and asymmetric effects of oil price changes on inflation in Algeria.

Short-run and long-run asymmetries are introduced via positive and negative partial sum decompositions of oil price.

The long-term results indicated that 1% of positive oil price shock would lead to a rise in the inflation rate by 0.18%, while 1% of negative oil shock reduces the inflation rate by 0.14%.

Therefore, the monetary authorities should adopt appropriate policies to absorb oil shocks to avoid any inflationary effects.