قياس عدم التأكد في السياسة الاقتصادية في سورية باستخدام نموذج التقلب العشوائي البيزي

Abstract EN

Research on the state of economic policy uncertainty as an influencing factor in economic decisions has increased in recent years.

Most countries have included economic policy uncertainty index in their statistical periodicals as an important indicator of the health of the economy.

Therefore, this research provided a framework for measuring economic policy uncertainty in Syria according to stochastic volatility approach, considering the uncertainty as a latent variable that leads common and idiosyncratic volatility for a set of economic and financial variables using Bayesian Stochastic Volatility model.

The results showed an increase in economic policy uncertainty during the periods corresponding to economic and political events in Syria.

This reflects the lack of clarity in economic policy by the central bank and policy makers, and thus the difficulty of knowing and predicting the trend of the economy's development during the next stage.