قياس أثر النفقات العامة على الدين في السودان خلال الفترة 1990-2021 م

Abstract EN

The study aimed to measuring the impact of public expenditures on debt in Sudan during the period 1990-2021, and by using econometrics methodology through time series data and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lagged model, it found that there is an equilibrium positive significant relationship between public expenditures and debt in both short and long run , that means the increase in public expenditures by 1% will decrease debt by 0.5655, and the decrease in public expenditures by 1% will increase debt by 0.3803, this means inelastic debt to the decrease of public expenditure, and the actual deviation from the equilibrium between the model variables is corrected by 35%, begin in this year and it takes about 2years and 9 month, and recommended the need to adopt a radical reform plan by merging some institutions to reduce public expenditures, and follow a suitable methodology for managing public debt and taking the decision to loan, with the aim of determining the ability to achieve the goals for which loaning is made