اختبار فرضية النمو القائم على التصدير (ELG)‎: دراسة تطبيقية على الاقتصاد المصري

Abstract EN

The new classic saw that competition in the international market enhances economies of scale and increases efficiency by concentrating resources in sectors in which the state has a comparative advantage, and that these positive external factors promote economic growth, and they argued for export-led growth, so the current research aims to test the hypothesis export-led growth (ELG), based on a model applied to the Egyptian economy during the period (1978-2021), and includes the various channels of impact of exports on the economy and its estimation using the (ARDL) model.

the results confirmed the applicability of the export-led growth hypothesis in Egypt in the short-term and long-term, and it became clear from the results of the model used, that there is a positive and moral impact of exports on economic growth in the short-term, as an increase in exports by 1% results in an increase in economic growth by 1.08%, and this relationship is extended to the long-term, that the value of the coefficient of error correction capacity (CointEq = -1.7), which means that when economic growth deviates from the equilibrium position in the short term, it needs about 6 months to correct from its position in the direction of its equilibrium value in the long term.