تقييم مدى قدرة الاقتصاد المصري على تحقيق الاستدامة المالية خلال الفترة 2001-2002، 2020-2021

Abstract EN

Public debt is a global economic phenomenon, as all countries of the world resort to borrowing, but the rapid growth in the size of the debt and its exceeding safe limits as a percentage of the gross domestic product negatively affects economic activity, and the Egyptian economy has been affected by many crises and events, which led to Egypt resorting to borrowing.

hence, the aim of the research is to show the extent of the Egyptian economy's ability to achieve financial sustainability during the period 2001 / 2002-2020 / 2021.

to achieve this, the deductive approach was used, with its tools of description and analysis, to describe financial sustainability, and analyze the performance of some of its indicators in the Egyptian economy during the period 2001 / 2002-2020 / 2021.

the research found, through the public debt-to-GDP ratio indicator, which is one of the most used indicators by concerned countries and institutions in assessing the level of debt, that the public debt-to-GDP ratio in Egypt reached 103% in 2016 / 2017, which is the highest ratio during study period, then decreased to 84.9 in 2018 / 2019, as a result of the completion of the ministry of finance's reform policy, which it embarked on with the launch of the economic reform program.

it resulted in many positive aspects represented in reducing the budget deficit ratio to GDP from 12.5% in 2015 / 2016 to 8% in 2019 / 2020, in addition to achieving a primary budget surplus of 1.8% of GDP in 2016.

2019 / 2020 compared to an initial deficit of 3.5% of GDP in 2015 / 2016, and thus the public debt-to-GDP ratio decreased from 98% in 2015 / 2016 to 90.2% in 2019 / 2020, despite the improvement however, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is still high and many measures should be taken to reduce this ratio.

as it began to rise again until it reached 93.5% in 2020 / 2021, and this percentage is much higher than the percentage proposed by the international monetary fund to assess debt sustainability in emerging countries.