النمذجة المكانية–الزمانية لمحاكاة النمو العمراني لمدينة تبوك حتى عام ۲۰۳۰م باستخدام نموذج الأتومات الخلوي–ماركوف (CA-Markov)‎

Abstract EN

One of the most important challenges in urban studies involving spatial modeling is the spatio-temporal analysis to create an accurate simulation of future urban growth.

CA-Markov is one of the most widely used models for this purpose.

This study aims to monitor the most important features of the change in the urban cluster of Tabuk during the period 1988-2020.

It attempts to trace the axes of urban growth in the city, to know its trends, patterns, determinants, and its relationship to flood risks, and the factors affecting it, and to predict the future urban growth of the city until 2030.

In order to achieve these goals, the most important features of the change in the city of Tabuk during the period 1988-2020 were monitored through targeted classification of the observation satellite Landsat-5 TM for the years 1988, 1998, 2008, and the observation satellite Landsat-8 OLIfor the year 2020.

To improve the model's accuracy on future forecasting, areas suitable for the city's future urban expansion were identified, using multi criteria analysis, which is based on geographic information systems (GIS MCA).

Eight different criteria were used such as economic, environmental, urban, and legal standards, and the weights of the criteria were determined based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP).

On the other hand, the cellular automata model - Markov (CA-Markov) was used to conduct spatio-temporal modeling to simulate the urban growth of the city until 2030.

The study's findings indicate that Tabuk has faced many challenges in sustainable urban development during the past forty years.

The most prominent of these challenges is urban expansion that encroached on valleys paths, in addition to urban expansions that took place at the expense of agricultural land in the east of the city, which resulted in environmental and ecological imbalance.

Urban construction during that period was approximately 4.8 times its area in 1988, and the urban increase reached about 9,719 hectares.

The increase was distributed over the forty years with a growth rate of 4%, and an average annual increase of 243 hectares.

This growth was reflected in the increase in areas exposed to flood risks, with an annual average of 65 hectares per year.

Moreover, six axes of urban growth could be distinguished, and the dominant trend in urban growth was eastern for all stages of growth by 18.77%.

Furthermore, the areas suitable for future urban growth in Tabuk have reached about 550 km2, or 25.22% of the total area of the designated area, which amounts to 2,180 km2.

It has also become clear that the expected urban growth of the city will reach about 122.86 km2 in 2020 and about 168.96 km2 in 2030.