نموذج مقترح للتنبؤ بمعدلات وفيات الأطفال دون سن الخامسة في ليبيا باستخدام السلاسل الزمنية والانحدار الأسي

Abstract EN

The process of predicting any phenomenon is directly affected by the selection of the appropriate model for the data of the phenomenon.

this study aimed to arrive at the best model for predicting under-five mortality rates in Libya by comparing time-series and exponential regression models.

the study relied on time series data for under-five mortality rates from the world bank data for the period (1960-2019).

the study found the best model according to the Akiki criterion ARIMA (1,1,0) is among the proposed ARIMA models, the study also found that the exponential regression model is better in predicting than the ARIMA model, as its results were closer to reality.

the mortality rate was predicted until 2028.