أثر تقلبات الإيرادات النفطية على الإنفاق الكلي والناتج المحلي الإجمالي في العراق للمدة (2004-2020)‎

Abstract EN

The study aims to determine and know the type of causal and mutual relationship and study the impact of fluctuations in oil revenues on the macroeconomic variables in Iraq and for the duration of the study (2004-2020), using the standard analysis model (VAR) and through the benchmarking program (EVIEWS12), and determining whether the relationship is towards one or two directions and the size of that relationship to know the extent of the impact of oil revenues on macroeconomic variables, according to the theory that (fluctuations) in oil revenues with both parts (positive and negative) contribute to monitoring the movement of economic variables in Iraq.

the importance of the research comes from the role that fluctuations in oil revenues can play in influencing economic revenues through the use of a group of variables, including (total spending, GDP, inflation, unemployment), so the research works to clarify the concept of oil revenues and their impact on the overall economy.

as well as a statement of the factors affecting it, along with offering solutions that may contribute to maintaining its stability or finding alternative solutions to it.