الآثار الاقتصادية المحتملة للتغيرات المناخية على محاصيل الحبوب باستخدام النموذج الدولي لتحليل سياسات السلع الزراعية والتجارة

Abstract EN

The study seeks to analyze the potential economic effects of climate change on the most important cereal crops in Egypt, and to reach recommendations to help mitigate the negative effects of climate change on the yield of the most important cereal crops.

To achieve these objectives, the study applies the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade.

The results show that it is likely that climate changes will adversely affect the productivity of cereal crops in Egypt; wheat, maize, and rice, as the productivity will decrease by 9.06%, 19.54%, 8.53%, respectively, thus resulting in a decrease in their total production of about 11.5%, particularly wheat, maize, and rice by 2.3%, 21.8%, and 6.4%, respectively.

This leads to an increase in the demand on some agricultural products and an increase in their prices.

The price of wheat and maize will reach about 391.90, 342.31 US$ / ton respectively, while the price of rice will rise to about 667.34 US$ / ton.

It is expected that the total demand for cereals, wheat, maize, and rice will decrease, as it will reach about 58.99, 30.17, 5.1, and 5.21 million tons, respectively.

Finally, the study ends with policy recommendations to develop adaptive measures to address the potential impacts of climate change, which are mainly represented in agricultural productivity losses.

The most important of these measures are to provide climate-smart crop varieties (that are resistant to heat and drought), improve agricultural practice, and educate and guide farmers to shift from crops that are profoundly impacted by climate change to those that are resistant to climate pressures.

The study recommends, as well, the need for the agricultural sector to inject more investments to improve productivity.