قياس العلاقة ما بين الصادرات والواردات في الأجل الطويل: دراسة تحليلية قياسية على الاقتصاد الليبي باستخدام نموذج تصحيح الخطأ خلال الفترة 1970-2019

Abstract EN

This study aimed to measure the relationship between exports and imports in the long term as a standard analytical study on the Libyan economy using the error correction model (ECM) during the period 1970-2019, to achieve this goal, the study used a set of statistical and mathematical methods which included: joint and simultaneous integration models and the error correction model, moreover the (Eviews) program used to analyse the published data from the Central Bank of Libya, the General Planning Council, and the Ministry of Planning in order to know the significance of the error correction model of it and determine its coefficient after confirming the stability of the time series and determining the rank of their integration, this study concluded that, there is a long-term integrative relationship between Libyan exports and imports during the study period in addition, there is a significance of the estimated model using the error correction model, one of the most prominent recommendations of the study is the interest in supporting and diversifying exports should be enhanced as an engine of economic growth, by relyhng on appropriate mechanisms for their development and diversification in addition to activating the role of the private sector in the Libyan economy.