قياس العلاقة بين عجز الموازنة العامة والميزان النجاري: العجز المزدوج: العراق حالة دراسية للمدة (1990-2018)‎

Abstract EN

After 2003, Iraq witnessed important shifts in economic policy as it turned towards the market economy, economic reform programs and trade openness policy, which led to increased public expenditures, as the prominent feature of the Iraqi economy was the emergence of a fiscal deficit in the public budget as well as the suspension of most vital installations in the industrial sector.

agricultural, which led to an increase in imports to meet the requirements of local need.

as for the research hypothesis, there is a relationship between the deficit in the trade balance and the deficit in the general budget, that is, the double deficit in Iraq.

the importance of the research lies in studying the general budget as the financial center that reflects the requirements of investment and consumer spending and studying the current account as one of the external indicators that represents the nature of foreign trade.

the research aims mainly to verify the hypothesis to determine the effect of the mutual relationship between the public budget deficit and the current account in Iraq.

the first two approaches were relied on inductive approach through studying the theoretical framework, research indicators, analysis and extrapolation of the most important factors that led to a deficit in the general budget and the current account and the second method the quantitative approach through the use of econometric methods to study the causal relationships between non-systematic research variables (causality Engle granger) using (EViews 9).

the research limits for the study of double deficit in Iraq extend for the period (1990-2018).

several conclusions and recommendations were reached, including:- 1- the main hypothesis has been validated by the applied side and the analytical side.

2- there is a fundamental imbalance in the structure of the general budget of Iraq due to the wars that Iraq has fought and the economic sanctions imposed on it and the resulting structural imbalances in most parts of the national economy 3- the Iraqi trade balance is characterized by a high degree of degree of economic exposure towards the outside in terms of exports and humiliation due to its direct dependence on oil exports and the low percentage of the contribution of exports in other sectors.