نمذجة إنتاج الفستق الحلبي في محافظة حلب باستخدام أسلوب التحليل الطيفي

Abstract EN

The purpose of this study is to conduct a statistical analysis for the production of Pistacia Vera to show the general trend of its production, using the method of spectral analysis method which shows whether there is or not an alternate bearing during the studied period between 1998 and 2009.

The objectives of our study have been achieved through testing three basic hypotheses.

The first is, there is no relationship between the production of Pistacia Vera and the time.

The second hypothesis is exposure of its production random and cyclical fluctuations because of alternate bearing, The third hypothesis, which says that it does not necessarily increase the number of compounds in the spectral analysis to increase the calculated coefficient of determination for the model.

The most important results of this study are: the production of Pistacia Vera is associated with time, and it also showed that the studied series is irregular and takes the form of cyclical series with a linear trend, where the coefficient of determination is equal to 57.1% for the linear part of the function without considering the effects of the compounds on it, and by considering the effects of four compounds on the studied function, The coefficient of determination became 80.9%, and thus we showed that the equation is effective and the correlation is good.