محددات الطلب السياحي في الأردن

Abstract EN

The present study aims at investigating the quantitative impact of the faotors determining the demand for tourism in Jordan over the period 1975-2003 using the time scries analysis.

The focus of this study IB on the demand by tourists coming from USA, UK and Saudi Arabia.

To achieve the objective of this study, an econometric model has been designed where the number of tourists as the dependent variable and a set of independent variables that are believed influence the demand for tourism in Jordan.

The augmented diokey-fuller test(ADF) is used to test the stationarity of the variables included in the model to make sure the possibility of using the ordinary least squares method(OLS) to estimate the model, while the Johanson eo integration test is used to test for the existence of long-run relationship between variables.

The variance decomposition is used to estimate the short-run behavior.

The ADF test shows that all variables are non-stationary in their levels, but become stationary at their first difference.

These results disprove the use of the OLS method to estimate the model.

The johanson co integration test shows the existence of a long-run relationship between variables.

The variance decomposition shows that as a result of shook of one standard deviation in number of tourists, all variables contribute in predicting the error of such shock.