التحديد الكمى للعمالة الزراعية بجمهورية مصر العربية

Abstract EN

Reading the future requires to recognize the status quo of the positions of work force in agriculture and the related changes during the last period.

It also helps in analysing the probable effects to carry out the programs of structural adjustment with the complementry procedures such as finishing the rental relation between the owner and the tenant, in approaching the picture of near future at the begining of 21st century.

The abstracts availed from carrying out the structural adjustment may help to spotlight on the future of employment and unemployment.

At last, recognition of the Egyptian agriculture specification and the structural adjustment programs may enable to give more clear picture for the agricultural employment future.

The Egyptian agricultural sector is one of the most economic sectors in using work force where it avails about 28.5% of the work force total in the various national economic sectors.

In the light of this importance, it is required to recognize the status quo of the agricultural work force to be able answering the question: Is there surplus or deficit in this work force? The research aims at studying the status quo of the work force in the agricultural sector to recognize what available and needed from this employment, in addition to balancing the demand and need to estimate the surplus or deficit from human work in the agricultural sector and at last to forecast the volume of employment necessary for this sector.

The study used the method of statistic and descreptive analysis to achieve the results.

All the necessary data have been obtained mainly from the Economic Affairs Sector, Ministry of Agriculture, besides the studies relevant to the research subject.

The study showed relativeely static in the number of those working in agriculture during the period 1980/1981-2002/2003, as this number raised only 24.8% with annual rate about 1%, meanwhile the number of workers in the other sectors raised to 87.4% during the same period with annual rate about 3.8% this due to the high wages in these unagricultural sectors compared to efforts exerted in the agriculture sector that lead to increase employment in the unagricultural sectors.

The study also showed that the Egyptian agriculture characterized with wide base from tenants having object specification in educational level and this represent obstacle to apply agricultural technology, whence it affects negatively on the possibilities of increasing the agricultural production besides the large ratio of the tenanats are at old ages.

The estimation of the agricultural sector requirements from employment during 2002 was 4.432 million worker equivalent to 1.307 milliard day/work, meanwhile the volume of need from work force in the same year was 5.119 million worker equivalent to 1.1510 milliard day/work, this means that there was surplus in work force about 3.2 milliard day/work equivalent to 0.687 million worker represent about 15.42% of the volume of need in the mentioned year.

This refers to deficit in working in the agriculture sector from one side and work season on the another.

The study of future prediction for agricultural employment showed the increased demand on employment in the agricultural sector about 764 million day/work than the need during 2017 in absolute case.

Finally, the most important recommendations of the study are: 1-Taking act to eliminate illiteracy especially among workers in the agriculture sector.

2-The base of the agricultural producers especially the small ones and the agricultural workers who characterized with specification not respond quickly to possibilities of introducing new technologies in production and this requires more studies to overcome this phenomenon.

3-Expansion in developing the non-farm economic activities to face recession in the possibilities of agricultural sector to accommodate more of work force.

4-The study showed that there is surplus in the agricultural work force during that year.

It is worth mentioning that in the estimation of demand and need concerning work, the bases of estimation of animal production employment are not correct.

There for, it is necessary to conduct a study aims at limitation of volume and type of demand on agricultural work for animal production under various agricultural systems to enable obtain suitable treatments for these systems to be generalyzed.

5-The state must provide labor opportunities in the intensive labor projects in the new lands such as utility from the second products of some agricultural crops and the general projects for developing irrigation systems which depend mainly on employment.