التنبؤ باحتياجات وزارة التربية و التعليم السعودية من الموارد في مرحلة التعليم المتوسطة للبنين خلال الفترة (2010-2019)‎

Abstract EN

The study aims at providing a future vision for the needs of the Ministry of Education of Saudi Arabia resources at the intermediate education stage during the period (2010-2019), using Time Series Analysis, specifically the method of least squares.

In order to achieve the objective of the study and answer its questions, we used the annual data in intermediate education stage for boys through the years (2000-2009), then we predicted the number of students, teachers, schools, classrooms and teachers' salaries for the years (2010 -2019).

The results of Time Series Analysis indicate that, there is a quantitative growth in the number of students, teachers, schools and classes, and in the annual salaries during the ten-year forecast, for the number of students is expected to increase by 15 %, and the number of teachers to increase by 26 %, while the number of schools is expected to rise up to 42 %, and in the number of classrooms up to 43 %, as well as the total cost in salaries will rise up to 33 %.

In the end, the study recommended the importance of raising the ratio (student / teacher), and the trend towards economies of scale at the level of school and classroom; in order to avoid wastage in education and reduced cost, In addition to planning and setting strategies to ensure the appointment of the labor force with high efficiency.