النمو السكاني و النمو الزراعي في ظل محدودية الموارد المائية السطحية لدول حوض دجله و الفرات 1950-2006

Abstract EN

Over the period 1950–2006, the Tigris-Euphrates basin states (i.e.

Iraq, Syria and Turkey) witnessed an alarming population growth.

During that period, the region's population increased from ٣٠,٣ million in 1950 to more than 120 million in 2006.

Moreover, population growth in the region is currently (2007) at an absolute rate of more than two million a year.

Parallel to this population growth, in response to and in anticipation of the rapidly increasing population size in particular, the governments of the region made a large-scale developmental efforts.

These efforts included a large-scale investment in agricultural infrastructure, especially in the creation of irrigation capacities.

All these efforts were conducted under a given average annual rate of flow of water resources, of Tigris-Euphrates rivers within Turkey, of some 55 billion cubic meter.

This paper presents some facts on the changing population size (and labour force) in the Tigris-Euphrates basin states, as well as some facts related to agricultural growth in each over the period 1950-2006.

The logical relationship among population growth, agricultural capacity expansion, and the given average annual rate of flow of surface water resources of the Tigris-Euphrates rivers (within Turkey) led the author to the following conclusion: population growth in the region is incompatible with the simultaneous and sustainable expansion of agricultural capacity in each of Tigris-Euphrates basin states.

The author concluded this exploratory study by suggesting the organization of two consecutive conferences on population growth, past and present, in Iraq and in the region as a whole respectively.

The aim of each is to formulate a united population policy aiming at the achievement of the 'zero population growth' target in the region, within ten to fifteen years.