أثر تقلبات سعر الصرف على بعض متغيرات الاقتصاد الكلي في عدد من الدول النامية

Abstract EN

This research discusses the effect of the exchange rate fluctuations in some macroeconomic variables (inflation, economic growth, private capital inflow).

They are essential subjects in the economies of the developing and developed countries on the same side.

This issue had led the International Organizations (like IMF) to adopt several studies which interest in this subject.

These studies treated as the main basis of this research, because the excessive exchange rate fluctuations may increase the risks by which the investors and economic decision takers may face.

This consequently may create unsuitable environment for economic activities.

This research aims to study and discuss the effect of the exchange rate fluctuations in some macroeconomic variables for the period (1982 - 2002), via depending an assumption seeing that there is some effects for the exchange rate fluctuations on macroeconomic variables, but the nature and the style of these effects limiting it.

The responding of the countries and companies, also the individuals for these fluctuations have been proposed.

The research used two manners in analysis : The first : The theoretical framework which had started by the main concepts and which finished by the affecting mechanism of the exchange rate fluctuations on macroeconomic variables.

The second: The quantitative framework, used in it the regression analysis, the research sample contained ten countries (Colombia, Zaire, Costa Rica, Turkey, Uruguay, Ghana, Chile, Cameron, Kenya, Central Africa).

The research concluded some results, the most important result was : there is negative effects for the exchange rate fluctuations on capital inflow and the growth while it not seems that there is wide correlations between these fluctuations and inflation.