التنبؤ ببيانات حوادث الطرق في محافظة أربد

Abstract AR

Road accidents is a worldwideproblem.InJordan,a small country with its limited resources, the problem is more dangerous because of human deaths and loss of property due to it.

This makes it a national problem and therefore all of us must offer every possible help to wive it.

This pa|>er is to help tacMe this problem.

It is based on the number of monthly road accidents frorn lrbid Govemorate for the period 1987-1996, The aim of the paper is to forecast the number of road accidents in this Govemo-rate for the period 1997-2000.

The forecast is based on ARIMA models using the Box-Jenkins methodology.

Statistical tests based on sample autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions and other nonparametric tests are used to study the main characteristics of our road accidents time series.

The ARJMA model we identify appears to provide a reasonable fit for this data.

Key words and phrases: Irbid Govemorate, Road accidents* Forecasting, Trend, Random, Seasonal, Stationary, Autoeorrelation,Partial autocorrelation, Box-Jenkins, ARIMA model, Prediction interval.