Spatially Explicit Nonlinear Models for Explaining the Occurrence of Infectious Zoonotic Diseases
Joint Authors
Song, Bo
Conner, William
Jones, Stephen
Source
Issue
Vol. 2012, Issue 2012 (31 Dec. 2012), pp.1-12, 12 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2012-10-23
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
12
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Zoonotic diseases can be transmitted via an arthropod vector, and disease risk maps are often created based on underlying associative factors within the surrounding landscape of known occurrences.
A limitation however is the ability to map disease risk at a meaningful geographic scale, and traditional regression modeling approaches may not always be appropriate.
Our objective was to determine if nonlinear modeling could improve explanatory power in describing the occurrence of 2 tick-borne diseases (Lyme disease (LD) and Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF)) known to occur in Tennessee.
Medically diagnosed cases of LD (ICD-9: 088.81) and RMSF (ICD-9: 082.0) were extracted from a managed care organization data warehouse for the 2000–2009 time period.
Four separate modeling techniques were constructed (logistic regression, classification and regression tree (CART), gradient boosted tree (GBT), and neural network (NNET)) and compared for accuracy.
Results suggest that areas higher in disease prevalence were not necessarily the same areas having high predicted disease risk.
GBT best explained LD occurrence (misclassification rate: 0.232; ROC: 0.789).
RMSF prevalence was best explained with an NNET algorithm (misclassification rate: 0.288; ROC: 0.696).
Covariates explaining disease risk included forested wetlands, urbanization, and median income.
Nonlinear modeling may provide better results than traditional regression-based approaches.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Jones, Stephen& Conner, William& Song, Bo. 2012. Spatially Explicit Nonlinear Models for Explaining the Occurrence of Infectious Zoonotic Diseases. ISRN Biomathematics،Vol. 2012, no. 2012, pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-448243
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Jones, Stephen…[et al.]. Spatially Explicit Nonlinear Models for Explaining the Occurrence of Infectious Zoonotic Diseases. ISRN Biomathematics No. 2012 (2012), pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-448243
American Medical Association (AMA)
Jones, Stephen& Conner, William& Song, Bo. Spatially Explicit Nonlinear Models for Explaining the Occurrence of Infectious Zoonotic Diseases. ISRN Biomathematics. 2012. Vol. 2012, no. 2012, pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-448243
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-448243