النظريات السكانية و دور المفكرين المسلمين في تكوينها قديما و حديثا

Abstract EN

Population theories are ways to conceptualize population dynamics and explain demographic relationships and prospects.

¥arieties include those of the Merchantalists, Malthus, Marx, biomethematical, optimal size, demographic transition and epidemiologic transition.

The premodern population cycles are explained on the basis of the writings of Ibn Khaldoun, the ل؛،4ل century Arab historian/sociologist, and the Father of population sciences.

The Epidemiologic transition theory ^mran, ا97ا) a muslim thinker, goes beyond the demographic transition by proby into the real cau®es for population change namely the change in mortality and disease pattern from epidemics and famine to receding epidemics to degenerative and man-made diseases with a correspending change in survival chances which favors females more than males and children more than adults.

The theory presents four models: the classical for the experience in the West, the ac-celerated for Eastern Europe and Japan, the delayed for the 3rd world countries and the transitional version of the latter for the emerging economic demographic successes in coun-tries like Taiwan and South Korea.