استخدام نماذج بوكس-جنكز للتنبؤ بإنتاجية السمسم في سوق محاصيل الأبيض للفترة (1960-2012 م)‎

Abstract EN

This research deal with using seasonal time series models to study and Analysis of annual data on Sesameproduction in the crops Ellobaied market for the period from (1960-2012) , whereas this models are distinct with high accuracy and flexible in analysis time series .

The results of application show that the proper and efficiency model for representing time series data is the: ARIMA(1,1,0) According to estimation results of this model done forecasting to productivitySesame in the crops Ellobaied market for the period from (1960-2012) , these values show a harmonic direction with the same original time series.