الأزمة في سورية من البداية إلى اليوم

Abstract EN

The Syrian Revolution was unexpected and was not the outcome of an earlier popular awakening as it was the case in Egypt’s January 15 revolution; it was not characterized by greed to achieve new gains for international forces as the allies intended in Libya; it did not revolt to only remove the government and head of government as was the outcome in Tunisia; it was not protected by a strong tribal system as in Yemen; it rather was and still is an orphan as it opposed the rulers wishes leading them to reconsider their positions.

We cannot discuss the crisis in Syria without understanding the nature of the role played by the countries of the region and the world; and without specifying these countries’ objectives and rationale for intervention as they are looking for a foothold in Syria.

Whether pursuing a bargaining chip to be presented in a future settlement or acting in an effort to consolidate their control pursing their unbridled ambition in expansion or preventing future risks that may threaten their strategic interests in the Levant.

The Syrian crisis should not also be addressed only by analyzing external factors without understanding the dynamics of the conflict and without understanding the reasons of the popular movement.

Reviewing the events of the past four years it could be concluded that the Syrian Revolution went through four stages.

The first stage the pure peaceful movement continued for one year and ended by the battle of Baba Amr in February 2012 which is considered as a declaration of the end of this stage and added a defensive tier that will be called the forceful confrontation stage.

The chemical deal reinforced the international community’s conviction of the possibility of cooperation with Damascus which was utilized by Assad to bring in Lebanese and Iraqi militias loyal to his major ally –Iran.

The title of this stage was worsening / polarizing the conflict and it was ended by the proclamation of the Caliphate State after the ISIS controlled the city of Mosul in Iraq and large parts of eastern Syria in June 9 2014.

Thus the crisis in Syria entered the fourth stage of international watching under the pretext of the priority of the fight against terrorism.