استخدام نموذج تدخل اريما لقياس اثر التغيرات التي تحدث في حوادث المرور بولاية الخرطوم خلال الفترة (2005 م-2014 م)‎

Abstract EN

In this paper it intervention ARIMA time series to has been applied measure the impact of the changes that occur before and after the traffic law in 2010 to create a model to predict the traffic accidents in the state of Khartoum relying on monthly data for the period (2005-2014) the results of the data entering Arima model analysis showed that it is appropriate model for measuring the effect of changes that occur, because the chain is not static and the model is suitable for measuring the effect of changes and gives accurate predictions through the statistical calculations φ the finally forecasts for the next five years, and analysis interference ARIMA to get an accurate description of the chain and building a suitable model to explain the behavior and use of the results to predict the behavior of the series time in the future.