التنبؤ بعدد سكان العراق باستخدام نماذج بوكس-جنكنز لغاية عام 2020

Abstract EN

The prediction in the preparation of the general population, is preparing in the approximate amount of time later, it also gives recognition expected change in the preparation of the population in the future, on the basis of social, economic and geographic population evolution.

The goal of most of the statistical population studies, predict the future is to provide an approximation of the population.

There is no doubt that the use of statistical and mathematical methods in the form of relations and models of digital measurements in population phenomenon fee, such as the use models "Box- Jenkins" and logistics to portray the main problem in changes in the size of the population, and the impact of these indicators on the economic and social development.

Which showed an increase in population size and growth rates, which requires improved levels of income and expense of the population's needs for food, housing, and the need to provide those future population data with the increasing demand by policy-makers and plans for economic and social development.