فعالية النماذج القياسية في التنبؤ بالطلب على الطاقة الكهربائية : دراسة حالة مؤسسة توزيع الكهرباء و الغاز بتلمسان

Abstract EN

This study seeks to learn the standard model optimized to predict the demand for electric power in Tlemcen, and for this purpose has been applied four standard models which model Box Jenkins, model Holt Winters, form the general trend and model simple linear regression depending on two time series which are the consumption of electrical energy (CE), and the number of participants in the electricity networks (CL), using quarterly data during the period (2007-2012).

using quarterly data during the period (2007-2012).

The results of the study showed that the optimal model is model Box Jenkins.