التحليل القياسي لدالة الطلب على واردات القمح في العراق بتطبيق للمدة (1980-ARDL نموذج الانحدار الذاتي للإبطاء الموزع 2011)‎

Abstract EN

the research aims to release the reality of production and consumption of rice and estimate the demand function on imports of rice in Iraq as part of a dynamic application ARDL model.

shows that the increase in production is less than the increase of consumption and the cause of low production of rice due to lack of water in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers .

As the incoming water to Iraq fell from 77 billion cubic meters annually during the eighties to 33 billion cubic meters per year during the first decade of the third millennium .

And that the GDP change rate of 1% increase in demand for wheat imports by 54%, and that the rise in the relative prices at a rate of 1% offset by a decline in demand for wheat imports in the long-term rate (11%), and the population at a rate of 1% change increases in the demand for wheat imports by 24% in the long term.