التنبؤ بالأرباح المستقبلية باستخدام الأرقام التاريخية للأرباح و التدفقات النقدية : بحث مستل

Abstract EN

This study summarize through finding out to what extent the use of accounting Earnings or cash flows in predicting future earnings and identify any of the two variables (cash flows and earning) have better ability in prediction, also aims to determine if the accuracy of prediction of future profits is influenced by the type of sector to which the company belong.

To achieve the objectives of the study, we tested 53 companies out of 83 registered in the Iraq Stock Exchange, which accounts for 64% split by the number of economic sectors, we have been relying on choosing of the published financial reports for the companies which form the sample of study for the financial periods from 2006 to 2012,and in order to reach the goals of the study we used the random walk model with growth rate, also the main and sub hypotheses were tested using the T test, and also using Mean Square Errors (MSE) to determine and identify which of the variables have more accurate prediction capability .

The study has concluded that it's possible to predict future earnings using earnings and cash flow and cash flows outweigh historical accounting earning when they are used to predict future earnings, also the difference in the type of economic sector would have no impact on the ability of any of the historical cash flows, as well as historical accounting earnings to predict future earnings