تحليل النماذج العشوائية للسلاسل الزمنية غير المستقرة لمرض سرطان الدم (اللوكيميا)‎ في محافظة البصرة

Abstract EN

In this research ,I've tried to study one of the blood cancer diseases which we called, Leukemia , in Basra governorate .

In this study I've taken the unstable stochastic models, through which an analysis has been made to identity the most significant properties in the process of constructing the suitable models for the intended case study in such a way that I have depended on the basic stages in building the specified time series models beginning from the diagnose process up to the stage of producing the appropriate model ,and predicting the given phenomenon using Box-Jenkins way that's used to reconstruct the given model .

Moreover, this would help in the process of analyzing these models by using (Box _ Ljung) test in which realistic data of blood cancer disease are used in the research, Finally ,it is worth to mention that the diagnosed model which put to the process of analysis is ARIMA(0,1,2) in the predicting process for years 2018 -2024.