العوامل المؤثرة على التضخم في السودان خلال الفترة 1980 م-2015 م

Abstract EN

The objective of this study is to determine the factors that affecting inflation in Sudan, the study was based on the following hypotheses : the most important factors that affecting inflation includes money supply, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exchange rate, degree of economic openness, and government spending.

Also, there is a statistically significant relationship between inflation and money supply, GDP, exchange rate, degree of economic openness, and government spending.

Moreover, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between inflation and its determinants.

The study used the descriptive approach and the analytical statistical method to construct its model ; besides using E-views8 Program for data analysis.

The Data was collected from the Central Bank of Sudan for the period (1980-2016).

Using the error correction technique, the model had been estimated in the short and the long run; whereas the value of R2 in long run amount to (0.99), which indicates that the independent variables affect the dependent variable by (99 % ) ; while the value of R2 in short run amount to (0.80), which indicates that the independent variables affect the dependent variable by (80 % ).The study main findings indicated the existence of a statistically significant relationship between the inflation rate and the real GDP, exchange rate, money supply, and government spending; while the degree of economic openness indicator had been excluded and replaced by the import variable, since it is found to be ineffective.

Furthermore, the study indicated the existence of a relationship between inflation and its determinants in the short and long run.

The study calls for controlling the parallel exchange rate to stabilize the exchange market.