تطبيق منهجية بوكس و جنكينز في تحليل السلاسل الزمنية و التنبؤ بمبيعات مطاحن الحضنة للفترة الممتدة من مارس 2016 إلى فيفري 2017

Abstract EN

Through this research, we studied and analyzed a set of monthly data represented in the form of a time series of the flour sales evolution, as a best-selling product among Hodna mills products, during the period from January 2010 - February 2016.

We used the Box-Jenkins methodology because of its high accuracy and flexibility in time series analysis, as well as its results, which are often very close to reality.

The results show that the appropriate model for representing the time series data is ARMA (1,0) (0,0) model.

Using this model, we predicted the monthly sales of flour product during the period from March 2016 until February 2017.

The results show a harmonic direction with those in the original series of sales.