نمذجة العلاقة بين أسعار النفط الدولية و أسعار صرف العملات الارتكازية باستخدام نماذج ال VAR خلال الفترة (1999-2013)‎

Abstract EN

Has undergone a causal relationship between crude oil prices and currency exchange rates are basic - primarily the dollar and the Euro - for many economic studies that have reached inconclusive results, and assuming a causal relationship a two-way between the dollar exchange rate against the euro and international oil prices during the period (1999-2013) problem manifested a mutual nature of the trends between crude oil prices and the dollar exchange rates and the Euro? Is there a causal relationship between the two?.

The study concluded form the VAR and causal Granger and functions response (shock) and variance analysis that there is a strong correlation and statistical significance between international oil prices and exchange rates of the dollar against the Euro, where we found that the flexibility of oil prices for the growth of exchange rates of the dollar against the Euro is estimated -0.44% in the short term, and flexible exchange rates of the dollar against the Euro for the growth of oil prices estimated -0.016%.