الخيارات المعرفية و المنهجية في بناء السيناريوهات لدى المدارس الاستشرافية
Other Title(s)
Constructing scenarios : cognitive and methodological options among foresight schools
Source
Issue
Vol. 2016, Issue 1 (30 Jun. 2016), pp.104-133, 30 p.
Publisher
Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies
Publication Date
2016-06-30
Country of Publication
Qatar
No. of Pages
30
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
The technique of drafting futures scenarios spread rapidly in the wake of the Second World War, and became an unrivalled methodological approach for military strategic planning.
In the 1950s and 1960s, it developed as a basic method used in forecasting, amid a proliferation of theoretical and epistemological development.
This paper examines the intellectual and methodological approaches that emerged across various schools of futurology in an attempt to understand the underlying mechanisms of constructing scenarios in modern future studies.
Likewise, it aims to illuminate the fundamental methodological differences in the foundations and methods used in scenario techniques, particularly those which differ across the intuitive/qualitative and probabilistic/quantitative approaches.
Finally, the paper examines some Arab attempts at foresight and scenario construction, and tests the ability of these attempts to found pioneering Arab schools of foresight
American Psychological Association (APA)
خميس، محمد. 2016. الخيارات المعرفية و المنهجية في بناء السيناريوهات لدى المدارس الاستشرافية. استشراف : للدراسات المستقبلية،مج. 2016، ع. 1، ص ص. 104-133.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-818131
Modern Language Association (MLA)
خميس، محمد. الخيارات المعرفية و المنهجية في بناء السيناريوهات لدى المدارس الاستشرافية. استشراف : للدراسات المستقبلية ع. 1 (2016)، ص ص. 104-133.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-818131
American Medical Association (AMA)
خميس، محمد. الخيارات المعرفية و المنهجية في بناء السيناريوهات لدى المدارس الاستشرافية. استشراف : للدراسات المستقبلية. 2016. مج. 2016، ع. 1، ص ص. 104-133.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-818131
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
Arabic
Notes
يتضمن هوامش.
Record ID
BIM-818131