التحليل المورفولوجي و بناء السيناريوهات

Abstract EN

In order to understand the future developments of some sectors and to be familiar with all the possibilities of its development and create partial and total scenarios, morphological analysis stands out as an effective working method in the field of forecasting.

Since the pioneering work of Fritz Zwicky most fields of knowledge have benefitted from this method of analysis once it demonstrated its effectiveness in the field of technological innovation.

In a brief period, this method shifted from prediction in the field of military industry to forecasting the future of other more diverse sectors, most importantly engineering and production design, the general theory of design and architecture, technological forecasting, management science, policy analysis and organization, creativity, innovation, knowledge management, the modelling of morphological analysis itself, futurological studies, and scenario building.

This paper deals with the major features of morphological analysis and scenario building, particularly with regard to the latest developments in the French school of future studies.