فعالية التنبؤ باستخدام نموذج التمهيد الأسي في ترشيد قرارات الإنتاج : دراسة حالة مؤسسة صناعة الإسمنت بحجار السود سكيكدة

Abstract EN

The objective of this study is to clarify how to predict production quantities using the exponential boot model, to understand the importance of analysis in planning through the application of time series studied in the forecasting process on enterprise data, in the foundation of the cement industry corporation in Hadjer El Ssoud Skikda.

In order to achieve objectives of this study, the institutions the documents and records have been audited, in addition to interviews with the workers.

The study reached to important results, including that the institution must rely on forecasting because it provides the management with the assumptions and scenarios on which the strategies and plans necessary, the production chain are unstable.

The reason for their instability is the presence of a general direction vehicle and seasonal vehicle Furthermore; the Holt Winter aggregation model is effective when used to predict production in the enterprise.