Jordan’s fertility stall and resumed decline : an investigation of demographic factors

Abstract EN

From the late 1990s until 2010, the fertility transition in Jordan was stalled, with the total fertility rate (TFR) well above replacement level.

In this paper, we present new evidence that fertility rates in Jordan have resumed declining, and examine the possible mechanisms behind this trend.

Based on data from the Jordan Labor Market Panel Survey 2016, fertility has declined from a TFR of 3.8 in 2010 to 3.3 in 2016 among Jordanians.

Despite challenging economic conditions, age at marriage has remained stable.

Therefore nuptiality cannot be the main driver of the recent fertility decline.

Although fertility rates have declined across parities and population groups, there is evidence of reduced fertility particularly among more educated women.