تحليل و قياس أثر التغيرات في المجاميع النقدية على القيمة السوقية لبورصة الأوراق المالية في إطار السببية و التكامل المشترك : دراسة حالة بورصة تونس خلال الفترة (2012-2017)‎

Abstract EN

The aim of this study is to sudy the etffect of changes in the money supply on the Tunisian stock exchange by analyzing the effect of these changes on their Market Capitalization during the period 2012-2017.

In particular Knowledge of impact of monetary policy on the stock exchange, policy-makers can design appropriate policies to direct investments to selected sectors.

In order to achieve the objective of the study, the methodology of econometric analysis of time series was used.

The stability of the study variables was tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test before applying Johansson’s co-integration methodology to test the long-term equilibrium relationship.

The Granger’s causality test was used to determine the direction of the causal relationship in the short term.

The study concluded that there is a common correlation between money supply and the Market Capitalization of the stock exchange, The results of Granger's causality show a unidirectional causality running fromthe money supply to Market Capitalization , which means that money supply causes Market Capitalization in the Tunisian stock exchange , not vice versa.